On February 28, 2026, the United States and Israel launched a major military campaign against Iran, resulting in the assassination of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The campaign triggered a rapidly evolving crisis across the Middle East, disrupting energy markets, closing Gulf airspace and waterways, and sending geopolitical and diplomatic shockwaves through the region, including casting uncertainty over the anticipated Trump-Xi summit at the end of March.
In an event recorded on March 9, 2026, Yun Sun and Gedaliah Afterman, in conversation with Lincoln Hines, unpack how the Iran war is testing China’s relationships across the Middle East, what Beijing’s response reveals about the limits of its regional influence, and what a fundamentally reshaped Middle East, potentially including a post-Islamic Republic Iran, means for the broader trajectory of U.S.-China relations.
