Wednesday, September 3, 2025 | 12:00 PM EDT

On June 22, 2025, the United States launched a preventive strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities, a decision that reverberated beyond the Middle East. How might this action reshape thinking about deterrence in the Taiwan Strait? The strike has raised broader questions about U.S. strategy, the credibility of its security assurances, and the potential role of preventive military force in future conflicts. 

In a conversation recorded on September 5, 2025, M. Taylor Fravel, Amanda Hsiao, and Jennifer Staats consider what the Iran strike signals about Washington’s willingness to use force and implications for Taiwan, East Asia, and the future of U.S. military strategy.  

Speakers

M. Taylor Fravel

M. Taylor Fravel is the Arthur and Ruth Sloan Professor of Political Science and director of the Security Studies Program at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.  He studies international relations, with a focus on international security, China, and East Asia.  His publications have appeared in International Security, Foreign Affairs, Security Studies, International Studies Review, and The China Quarterly, among others. Dr. Fravel is a graduate of Middlebury College and Stanford University, where he received his PhD.  He also has graduate degrees from the London School of Economics and Oxford University, where he was a Rhodes Scholar.  In 2016, he was named an Andrew Carnegie Fellow by the Carnegie Corporation.  Dr. Fravel is a member of the board of directors of the National Committee on U.S.-China Relations and serves as the Principal Investigator for the Maritime Awareness Project.

Amanda Hsiao

Amanda Hsiao is a director in Eurasia Group’s China practice covering China’s foreign policy and cross-strait relations. She previously worked for more than a decade in Asia, in Singapore, Beijing, and Taipei, analyzing Chinese foreign and security policies from the perspective of crisis management and conflict prevention. As the International Crisis Group’s senior analyst on China, Amanda followed the political dynamics underlying the tensions along China’s periphery, including the Taiwan Strait and the Sino-Indian border, and with the US. Prior to that, she established the Centre for Humanitarian Dialogue’s China program in Beijing, where she designed and facilitated dialogues involving Chinese interlocutors on issues such as tensions in the South China Sea, US-China relations, and China’s evolving approach to conflict mediation. 

Moderator

Jennifer Staats

Jennifer Staats is associate director of the RAND China Research Center and a senior political scientist at RAND. Prior to joining RAND, she was the Director of East Asia and Pacific Programs at the U.S. Institute of Peace, where she led the Institute’s research and programming on China, Northeast Asia, Southeast Asia, and the Pacific Islands. Dr. Staats previously served as director for advanced capabilities on the National Security Council staff, working with allies to enhance peace and security in the Indo-Pacific. She also spent several years working in the Office of the Secretary of Defense, where she focused on policy issues related to Asia. 

Dr. Staats received her doctoral degree from Harvard University, her master’s from Princeton University, and her bachelor’s from the University of the South (Sewanee). She has been named a Fulbright Scholar, NSEP Boren Fellow, Javits Fellow, Rosenthal Fellow, a National Committee on U.S.-China Relations Public Intellectuals Program fellow, and NCAA Postgraduate Scholar. She is a life member of the Council on Foreign Relations.