With a strict zero-Covid policy and surge in export growth, China’s economy grew an impressive eight percent in 2021, yet uncertainty looms on the horizon. Nomura and Goldman Sachs both anticipate that China’s annual GDP growth will fall to 4.3 percent in 2022; some estimates are even lower. Both the promise of continued export growth and the threat of surging inflation raise critical questions in a very important political year for China. What are some potential obstacles Beijing could face with an economic slowdown? How will tariffs, trade imbalances, and geopolitics affect China’s economic prospects?
The National Committee, in partnership with Peking University’s National School of Development (NSD), held a virtual program on March 2, 2022 with Dr. Hu Yifan and Dr. Huang Yiping to provide a forecast of China’s economy in the coming year.