Can deterrence lead to lasting peace? Both the United States and China use the strategy of preventing a rival from acting by instilling fear of potential consequences. The United States aims to discourage a Chinese military invasion of Taiwan, believing that this is crucial to preserving peace in the region. China aims to curb U.S. alliances or troop expansion in Asia, maintaining that U.S. involvement undermines China’s economic and political interests. Both countries want to further their own interests while avoiding war.
Our new series, Faultlines, examines the strategic differences between the United States and China. The two nations differ in how they see economic, military, cultural, and governance issues, but was this always the case? By examining the view from both sides of the faultline we can piece together how we got here and where we’re going next.
Oriana Skylar Mastro and Joel Wuthnow joined us in April and May 2025 (respectively) to discuss the U.S. and Chinese views on how to avoid a catastrophic military conflict between the U.S. and China.
Photo credit to Ryan Osland/The Australian
Oriana Skylar Mastro
Oriana Skylar Mastro is a Center Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies and Courtesy Assistant Professor of Political Science at Stanford University where her research focuses on Chinese military and security policy, Asia-Pacific security issues, war termination, and coercive diplomacy. She is also a nonresident scholar, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and a member of the Council on Foreign Relations. She was previously an assistant professor of security studies at Georgetown University. Mastro continues to serve in the United States Air Force Reserve for which she currently works at the Pentagon as Deputy Chief of Reserve China Global Strategy. For her contributions to U.S. strategy in Asia, she won the Individual Reservist of the Year Award in 2016 and 2022 (FGO). She has published widely, including in International Security, Security Studies, Foreign Affairs, Journal of Strategic Studies, The Washington Quarterly, the Economist and the New York Times. Her most recent book, Upstart: How China Became a Great Power (Oxford University Press, 2024), evaluates China’s approach to competition. Her book, The Costs of Conversation: Obstacles to Peace Talks in Wartime, (Cornell University Press, 2019), won the 2020 American Political Science Association International Security Section Best Book by an Untenured Faculty Member. She holds a B.A. in East Asian Studies from Stanford University and an M.A. and Ph.D. in Politics from Princeton University. Her publications and other commentary can be found at www.orianaskylarmastro.com
Joel Wuthnow
Dr. Joel Wuthnow is a senior research fellow in the Center for the Study of Chinese Military Affairs within the Institute for National Strategic Studies at the National Defense University. He also serves as an adjunct professor in the Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service at Georgetown University. His recent books include China’s Quest for Military Supremacy (2025, with Phillip C. Saunders), Crossing the Strait: China’s Military Prepares for War with Taiwan (2022, lead editor), and The PLA Beyond Borders: Chinese Military Operations in Regional and Global Context (2021, lead editor). His work has also appeared in outlets such as Asia Policy, Asian Security, China Leadership Monitor, The China Quarterly, Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Joint Force Quarterly, Journal of Contemporary China, Journal of Strategic Studies, Korean Journal of Defense Analysis, Naval War College Review, The New York Times, and in edited volumes. Prior to joining NDU, Dr. Wuthnow was a China analyst at CNA, a postdoctoral fellow in the China and the World Program at Princeton University, and a pre-doctoral fellow at The Brookings Institution. His degrees are from Princeton University (A.B., summa cum laude, in Public and International Affairs), Oxford University (M.Phil. in Modern Chinese Studies), and Columbia University (Ph.D. in Political Science). He is proficient in Mandarin.